KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: Last Christmas Eve, satellite tracking and ship-transponder data revealed an unusual maritime event in the East China Sea: thousands of Chinese fishing vessels gathered into tight, linear formations and holding position for extended periods. It happened again two weeks later.
Analysts from a geospatial analytical firm were the first to identify two large stationary formations involving roughly 1,400 and 2,000 fishing vessels. Cargo ships in the area were forced to reroute or carefully thread between thousands of stationary vessels that had ceased normal fishing activity. This flotilla behavior by Chinese fishing boats, analysts believe, was a “gray zone” exercise.
“There have been proposals by defense experts in the United States that the should treat Chinas maritime militia as a real naval force,” Holmes Liao, a defense expert who is currently a senior advisor for the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), told Fox News Digital.
“I think Taiwan may need to adhere to that mentality and mindset,” said Liao. “If these Chinese vessels are operating under clear military direction, then their status under the law of armed conflict could be subject to reassessment, potentially affecting claims of civilian immunity.”
Liao said that deploying surveillance drones or air patrols over maritime militia formations to demonstrate presence and reinforce deterrence. “Taiwan has so far been very timid in response to PRC aggression,” said Liao. “They may be fishing boats, but they are actually under the PLAs command⦠part of the maritime militia.”Â
Indeed, several editions of the U.S. Department of Defenses annual “Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China,” describe the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) as a “state-organized, trained, and equipped” force that actively supports Chinas navy and coast guard.
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative have previously documented swarms of dozens or even hundreds of Chinese vessels in the South China Sea near contested reefs, often remaining stationary for long periods. But the incidents late last year and early this year highlight how the scale of this fishing militia appears to be expanding.
Fishing vessels are inexpensive, numerous and legally ambiguous. When deployed in mass, they complicate navigation, create radar clutter and raise operational risks for commercial shipping. The civilian status of these boats also conveniently allows Beijing to frame any incidents as “rogue actions not sanctioned by authorities,” or as accidents.
The United States frequently cites freedom of navigation as the reason for navy patrols in the Indo-Pacific, with a U.S. State Department fact sheet noting that the region “accounts for 60% of global GDP.” The area around Taiwan is already treated by maritime insurers and shipping firms as a “higher-risk environment,” meaning even temporary flotilla formations could influence shipping decisions and significantly affect both .
Taipei-based security analyst Sasha Chhabra, however, warned of the risks China would face should it deploy civilian fishing vessels in an active conflict. “A U.S. Navy convoy could easily break through these lines, and the large commercial vessels that carry Taiwans much-needed imports would easily splinter most fishing vessels in a ramming incident.”
He noted that there is precedent for Beijing using Chinese fisherman as “live bait” during a conflict. “In 1973, China used civilian fishing vessels to bait the South Vietnamese Navy into conflict and seize full control over the Paracels (islands),” said Chhabra. “But what worked against teetering South Vietnam in 1973 wont work against the
