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Four months to midterms: 12 races that will determine the Senate majority

Last updated: July 7, 2026 2:38 pm
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Four months to midterms: 12 races that will determine the Senate majority
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With just under four months to go until this year’s midterm elections, a top Senate Republican remains confident of the GOP’s chances.

Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the , recently told Fox News Digital this spring that he’s “incredibly optimistic” the GOP can not only hold but expand its current 53–47 majority in the upper chamber.

But his counterpart at the , Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is equally confident her party can flip control of the Senate, telling Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave” heading into November.

Republicans — as the party currently in power — were already up against traditional political headwinds that lead to a loss of congressional seats during midterm election years. Add to that the challenging climate fueled by persistent inflation, high gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President s underwater approval ratings. It’s all a perfect storm that spells unfavorable outcomes for the GOP.

But Democrats have problems of their own as they try to win back control of the Senate including a party brand that public opinion polling indicates is extremely unpopular.

Add to that high profile victories in this spring and summer by left-wing and socialist candidates over establishment rivals in Democratic primaries that is giving Republicans extra ammunition to portray all Democrats as extremists, or as Trump calls them, “communists.”

Here’s a look at a dozen competitive Senate seats in play that could potentially flip the balance of power in the chamber.

Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeast battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.

The GOP is rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has Trump’s backing after serving alongside the president’s daughter-in-law and Fox News host Lara Trump in the lead up to the 2024 election.

Democrats, meanwhile, landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name recognition in North Carolina and is 6-0 when it comes to running statewide races.

North Carolina voted for Trump for his second term, but the top nonpartisan political handicapper, Cook Political Report, rates the race Lean Democrat, with Inside Elections ranking it as a toss up.

Moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in blue-leaning Maine.

Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President carried in her 2024 presidential election bid against Trump. And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.

But the longtime senator, who has been a top DSCC target for multiple election cycles, has proven tough to beat.

But she could prevail again as her Democratic challenger, Graham Platner continues to face controversy over his past actions and comments.

The Marine Corps veteran and oyster farmer is backed by progressive champions Sens. , I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.

Republican groups supporting Collins have been blasting Platner over controversial comments he made over a decade ago on a now deleted Reddit account, a well-publicized Nazi-linked tattoo on his chest, infidelity and allegations of sexual misconduct.

The GOP’s also aiming to flip an open seat in battleground state of Michigan, where Democrat Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who won the 2024 GOP Senate nomination in Michigan but narrowly lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is making a second straight bid and is the all-but-certain Republican nominee.

Democrats are dealing with a titanic two-way fight between center-left Rep. Haley Stevens, who is backed by Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., a

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