Four weeks out from the election, and for most Americans, its time for football, foliage and flannel. For politics watchers, all eyes are on an October surprise.
Theyve been game-changers before. In 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which ushered in the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, was a turning point in John McCains presidential campaign. He was even with Barack Obama when the news broke, then trailed in every survey after. He lost the popular vote by seven points.
Surprises have come from home and abroad. In 1980, it was President Jimmy Carters inability to resolve the Iranian hostage crisis. Eight years earlier, it was President Richard Nixons announcement that “peace was at hand” in Vietnam.
Some have more impact than others. Its not clear that news about George W. Bushs DUI changed much about the 2000 election, nor that James Comeys letter to Congress about Hillary Clintons email server was the decider in President Trumps 2016 win.
Still, these surprises all have one thing in common: they happened in presidential years.
Its not as though we dont get breaking news during the last month of a midterm cycle. Take 2018, when the GOP warned about a migrant caravan, Brett Kavanaugh sought a seat on the Supreme Court, and a gunman opened fire at a Pittsburgh synagogue.
But that was the exception, not the rule. For the most part, midterm October surprises affect individual races, not the overall trajectory of a party.
In the last midterm, for example, Herschel Walker faced damaging allegations about paying for former girlfriends abortions, while in Florida, the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian gave Gov. Ron DeSantis the opportunity to show Floridians that he could be trusted to handle a crisis.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
Voters havent changed their minds about Trump or the party theyd prefer to elect to the House for several months now, so local stories like these are the ones to watch in the final weeks of the campaign.
Besides, the biggest surprises come after October.
For what still looks like a good â maybe great â year for the Democrats, the party is playing defense in some unexpected places.
DAVID MARCUS: IN DEEP BLUE MINNESOTA A RED DAWN MAY BE RISING AHEAD OF THE MIDTERMS
That starts with Minnesota, where Republicans have a star candidate in Michele Tafoya. The former NFL sideline reporter has been up and down the state with a message to “stop the fraud” if elected to the Senate. Thats been a hot issue in the state, and its allowed her to target the Democrat, Peggy Flanagan, who currently serves as lieutenant governor.
Then theres New Hamp
