Iran’s latest attacks on commercial shipping came just as the United States and Oman were beginning to steer more vessels through a new southern shipping corridor hugging Oman’s coastline â an alternative route designed to move traffic farther from Iran’s immediate reach.
Former U.S. military commanders and regional analysts told Fox News Digital the timing was no coincidence. They said Iran was trying to preserve one of its greatest strategic advantages as new shipping routes and regional infrastructure begin chipping away at Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
“The southern route creates a route they can’t toll or control,” retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery told Fox News Digital. “They felt it necessary to attack it.”
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For decades, Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has given it influence well beyond its borders. But that advantage is increasingly under pressure as Gulf states invest in pipelines that bypass Hormuz and the United States and Oman expand use of the southern corridor.Â
Nearly half of inbound commercial traffic through the strait is already using that route, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.Â
After Iran attacked vessels using the corridor, the U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian military targets tied to maritime operations. Iran retaliated in recent days with attacks on U.S. facilities and regional partners before Trump announced both sides had agreed to halt further strikes and return to negotiations in Doha.Â
Iran has denied that its negotiators would be meeting with U.S. officials in Qatar on Tuesday.Â
Former Navy Fifth Fleet commander, Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, said Iran’s objective isn’t necessarily to halt shipping altogether.
“The IRGC has been trying to make it commercially unworkable,” Donegan told Fox News Digital, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “These attacks on shipping to me aren’t random. They’re strategy.”
Rather than closing the strait outright, Donegan said, Iran only needs to keep insurance premiums high enough that commercial shipping companies remain reluctant to return.
“Their strategy is to enforce their control of the straits,” he said, by driving up insurance costs while continuing to “test the U.S. resolve.”
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The question now is whether Iran can translate that military pressure into lasting influence over the strait.
Under the memorandum of understanding negotiated after the ceasefire, Iran, Oman and the Gulf littoral states are expected to negotiate the strait’s “future administration and maritime services” while commercial traffic moves toll-free for 60 days.
President has insisted on social media that there will be “NO TOLLS” after the negotiating period expires, even though the memorandum itself does not explicitly guarantee that outcome. Asked about the discrepancy, Trump argued that “common sense” and the threat of renewed U.S. military action would keep Iran from interfering with commercial traffic.
Iran, however, has signaled a different vision. An IRGC-lin
