The is finally here. Im no professional shark, but Ive spent hours grinding through Beyer figures to ensure Im not just throwing money away at Churchill Downs.
Im focusing strictly on the late-day heater: Races 8 through 12. These are my personal picks for the biggest day in sports, culminating in the of the Kentucky Derby.
We aren’t guessing. From exactas in the Turf Classic to a trifecta box for the Derby, these plays are backed by deep dives into the horse profiles and PPs from Daily Racing Form.
Time to hit the window. Here is my Pick 5, best bets and exotics. Lets turn this research into a payday at the 152nd Run for the Roses.
Pick 5 (Races 8-12):
L1: 1, L2: 7,12,14, L3: 1,5,11, L4: 4,6, L5: 12,14
Race 9:
$5 to Win/Place on #7 Alpyland and #14 Final Score ($20 total bet).
$1 Trifecta Box on 7,12,14
Race 10:
$10 to Win on #1 Disco Time.
$5 to Win/Place on #11 Point Fume ($10 total bet).
$1 Trifecta Box on 1,5,11 ($6 total bet).
Kentucky Derby (Race 12):
$10 Win/Place on #12 Chief Wallabe and #14 Potente ($40 total bet).
$1 Trifecta on 14/ 1,6,10,12,18 / 1,6,10,12,18 ($20 total bet). Â
$1 Trifecta Box on 5,12,14 ($6 total bet).
Eleven horses on a 1-mile dirt track for three-year-olds with a $375K purse.Â
#10 Englishman (3-1 on the morning-line)
I hate betting favorites, but I cannot get past the 2-0 Englishman. Although Im betting this race lightly and using the #10, and maybe the #4 in my multi-race wagers.
Nevertheless, he won his maiden at Churchill by 7.25 lengths and his 2026 debut by 7.5 lengths at the second- (97) and third-fastest (95) Beyer speed figures of any horse in the Pat Day field.
Englishman has blazing-fast early speed and he should get to the rail quickly because he is running out of the first post. Three of his four workouts this month have been great and Englishman looks ready to win his first stakes race.Â
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Thirteen horses on a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile turf track for three-year-olds with a $1 million purse.Â
#7 Alpyland (8-1)
He’s won four of his last five races and has gone off as the favorite in two of his three outings this year. Alpyland has two wins and a third this season, running an 84 (twice) and 85 Beyer in those races, which is fast enough to win the American Turf.
#14 Final Score (8-1)
This being Final Scores 2026 debut is definitely a concern. However, Final Score was 3-1 as a two-year-old. Those wins are in his last three starts, all at this distance. His last two wins were stakes races: Grade 3 With Anticipation and Grade 2 Bourbon.
Final Score’s elite connections, Mike Repole (owner) and Todd Pletcher (trainer), wouldnt put him in this race if they didnt think he could win. Repole and Pletcher got the best jockey in , Irad Ortiz, to ride him.
Lastly, Ill admit to my bias: Two of Final Scores wins are in Saratoga, my hometown and the greatest race track in the world.Â
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Eleven horses on a seven-furlong dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $1 million purse.Â
#1 Disco Time (6-1)
He’s gone off as the favorite in all seven career races (5-1-0). The Brad Cox trainee is cutting back to seven furlongs and two graded stakes two-turn races to start the season. Disco Time has won his only race at this distance and both times he’s run on the Churchi
