If history is any guide, Republicans could be in store for a beating at the ballot box in November.
President Donald Trumps average approval rating has dipped below 40%, while his disapproval rating has climbed into the high 50s. In previous elections, when presidents had approval ratings below 50%, their parties have almost always performed poorly in the midterms. Trump is nowhere near that threshold.
Congressional Republicans are not doing much better. The generic ballot shows that most midterm voters favor Democrats, and congressional disapproval has soared in 2026 compared to 2025. It now sits in the high 60s.
Republicans clearly need a new strategy. As strange as it might sound, one of the best models could come from their former nemesis, President Barack Obama, who managed to pull off one of modern political historys biggest turnarounds in 2012.
Many Americans have forgotten that Obamas reelection was far from assured. The Tea Party helped propel Republicans to a massive midterm victory in 2010. The recovery from the 2008 financial crash was extremely sluggish. Instability was spreading overseas, and fears about government spending were widespread. Throughout 2011, Obamas approval rating remained in the low 40s and sometimes fell into the high 30s.
Obama turned things around in time for the 2012 presidential election by adopting two strategies that conservatives could use in 2026.
First, although many Americans were deeply unhappy with the economy in 2012, the Obama administration successfully persuaded millions of voters that their economic problems had been inherited from the George W. Bush administration.
Obama argued America could not afford to return to the failed policies that, in his view, caused the 2008 crash. Of course, his account conveniently ignored that many of those policies had been strongly supported by Democrats in Congress, but the political strategy worked.
The message became one of the centerpieces of Obamas campaign. His team even adopted “Forward” as an official campaign slogan.
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Republicans have an obvious opportunity to make a similar case today. They inherited one of the worst inflation crises in decades when they took power in 2025. Housing costs and the prices of most consumer goods skyrocketed under Democratic rule for numerous reasons, including reckless spending, unnecessary lockdown and stimulus programs, supply chain problems and the Biden administrations obsession with costly “green” energy sources.
If Republicans want to survive November, they must convince voters that returning power to the architects of those policies could make the affordability crisis even worse.
The second strategy Republicans could borrow from Obama is related but distinct.
Obama acknowledged in 2012 that the country had more work to do, but he also argued that his administration had made real progress in recovering from the 2008 housing crisis. Finishing the job, Obama warned, was “going to take more time than any of us would like.”
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Republicans could make “Let us finish what we started” one of their central messages in 2026.
There is little re
