As President Donald Trump looks to revive summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, he faces a North Korea with a larger nuclear arsenal, a powerful new partner in Russia and far less incentive to strike a deal than it had during his first term.
Trumps renewed outreach comes as he remains locked in a nuclear standoff with Iran, reopening another piece of unfinished business from his first term. Unlike Iran, however, North Korea already possesses a mature nuclear arsenal and multiple delivery systems, leaving Trump with little prospect of eliminating the threat militarily and a narrower path to a deal than he had eight years ago.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump may see renewed North Korea diplomacy as both a chance to shift attention from Iran and an opportunity to reduce the number of adversaries confronting the United States.
“I think he frankly wants to take the headlines off of Iran,” Cha told Fox News Digital, arguing that Trump also sees North Korea as a fundamentally different nuclear challenge. “There really isn’t a military solution for a country like North Korea that has 50, 60, 70 nuclear weapons and several delivery systems for those weapons.”
TRUMP REVEALS EXACT NUMBER OF NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS
That leaves a sweeping denuclearization agreement increasingly out of reach. A more limited negotiation could instead focus on restricting nuclear and long-range missile tests, establishing crisis communications, weakening Pyongyangs growing ties with Moscow or reaching a peace agreement that leaves Kims nuclear arsenal intact.
“There is no grand bargain with North Korea that quickly eliminates the country’s nuclear arsenal,” Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told Fox News Digital. “North Korea can drive a harder bargain now than it could have in 2018.”
Trump said this week that he expects to meet Kim before the end of the year. He has cast the personal relationship that produced their earlier meetings as an asset for restarting diplomacy.
“I get along with him,” Trump said. “And you know what? The fact that I get along with him, that’s a good thing, not a bad thing.”
A White House official told Fox News Digital on background that the leaders “will meet at the appropriate time,” but the official did not provide a date, location or details about preparations.
Trumps potential payoff is a limited agreement that reduces the immediate nuclear danger rather than eliminates North Koreas arsenal. Cha identified several objectives short of denuclearization, including formally banning nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, reducing Pyongyangs ties with Moscow and establishing a crisis-management channel between the United States and North Korea.
Cha said Trump is also likely interested in a peace declaration or treaty that would allow him to claim progress on a conflict that has remained technically unresolved since the 1953 armistice.
Washingtons bargaining chips include phased sanctions relief, reductions in military exercises or U.S. force posture, a possible peace agreement and the political value of direct engagement with the U.S. president. For Kim, a deal that leaves his nuclear weapons intact could itself look like progress toward the regimes long-running goal of winning de facto acceptance as a nuclear weapons state.
Kim may also have another reason to keep Trump engaged. Cha pointed to the presidents willingness to use military force during his second term, arguing that North Korea may see continued contact with Trump as a way to reduce the risk of a confrontation.
Trump may have already made his first negotiating play. Cha pointed to the presidents reduction in joint exe
