PROVO, Utah â Accused Charlie Kirk assassin Tyler Robinson returns to a Utah courtroom Tuesday for a hearing that could send his case to trial or dramatically reshape it, with a judge to weigh whether prosecutors have shown enough probable cause to support the aggravated murder charge that puts the death penalty on the table â and the suspect may finally be asked to enter a plea nearly a year after the slaying.
Robinson, a 23-year-old from Washington, Utah, is accused of firing a single shot that killed the 31-year-old father of two during a Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah, on Sept. 10, 2025.
While the defense has argued that prosecutors have not established enough probable cause to pursue aggravated murder, which carries the potential death penalty, experts tell Fox News Digital that they don’t expect Judge Tony Graf Jr. to take it off the table just yet.
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“Were at a preliminary hearing stage, so were at a very low burden,” said Skye Lazaro, a Salt Lake City-based defense attorney who is not connected to the case. “Its probable cause, and everything is taken in a light most favorable to the state.”
The court held a week-long hearing in early July, then gave both sides weeks to file briefs before Tuesday’s expected decision from Judge Graf.
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She said she expects the entire case to be bound over for trial, including the sole aggravating factor that makes the aggravated murder charge eligible for the â that Robinson allegedly put other people at great risk of death by shooting Kirk in a crowded place.
Greg Rogers, a former FBI agent and SWAT sniper who now teaches at Utah Valley University, said the alleged risk to the crowd should be enough to preserve the aggravating factor at this stage.
“Shooting into a crowd is always dangerous because you dont know if someone moves, someone walks behind him,” Rogers told Fox News Digital. “There are all sorts of things that could happen in the very instant you pull that trigger.”
Rogers said even highly trained law-enforcement snipers would consider such a shot dangerous.
“When you have a rank amateur that is shooting, its clearly, clearly very dangerous,” he said.
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Separately, a court spokeswoman said last week that Graf may or may not hold an arraignment after deciding whether there’s enough probable cause to bind the case over for trial.
If he does, it would be the first time that Robinson is asked to enter a plea.
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“I would expect that they would enter not guilty p
