From collapse fears to resilience: How Russia reshaped its economy by the end of 2025

A deep dive into how state influence, Asian trade, and domestic production are reshaping the Russian economy
In 2025, the Russian economy looks very different from the one analysts feared would crumble in 2022. State-owned giants are booming, trade is shifting decisively eastward, and domestic industries are rapidly substituting imports. Over the past three years, GDP growth has consistently outpaced the global average, unemployment has fallen to historic lows, and the groundwork for a fundamentally reshaped economic model has been laid. The economy has reinvented itself under pressure, revealing a resilience that few outside Russia anticipated.
But what does this mean in practice? How has Russia’s economic model changed, and which sectors are thriving or struggling? In the following pages, we explore the state of the Russian economy at the end of 2025, providing a detailed look at the forces shaping its next chapter.
From collapse fears to unexpected resilienceBack in early 2022, the outlook seemed bleak. Many foreign observers – and even some domestic experts – predicted a sharp contraction, if not a full-scale economic collapse. Yet the reality has been strikingly different. By 2025, Russia had navigated a series of external shocks and domestic shifts, emerging with a stable economy and a transformed structure that sets the stage for future growth. This unexpected resilience highlights both the internal resources and systemic flexibility that have allowed Russia to withstand pressures few imagined it could endure.
Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office, this summer that the Russian economy was showing consistent growth despite sanctions, and that it outpaced global development rates. Russia’s GDP has been growing at over 4% annually for four years—this is above the global average. Unemployment is at a historic low of just 2.2%, compared to over 5% a few years ago, Oreshkin said.
By early December, Oreshkin a slowdown in economic growth; however, he described it as a planned adjustment. We need to move forward steadily and develop because we are on the track of sustainable economic growth. Yes, there’s been a slowdown this year, but it’s a planned slowdown. Maintaining stability is crucial right now, he said. 
The state takes the wheelA key aspect of the economic transformation has been the increasing role of the state. In response to external constraints and changes in the economic model, there has been an expansion of government procurement, heightened activity among state-owned enterprises, and increased support for companies engaged in the public sector.
This is largely due to the growth of state-owned corporations. For example, Rostec corporation’s revenue by 27% last year to reach 3.61 trillion rubles, with net profit soaring by 119% to 131.5 billion rubles. 
Rosatom’s overseas revenue from $9 billion to $18 billion over three years, and the order portfolio remains stable at $200 billion. The Rosatom corporation now leads global uranium enrichment with approximately a 40% market share and is a major supplier of natural uranium, nuclear fuel, and medical isotopes for cancer diagnosis and treatment, holding a 30-40% share in these areas.
Growth is also being in the investment company VEB.RF. By the end of 2024, the group reported a 45.2% increase in net profit (compared to 2023) measured according to international financial reporting standards, reaching 75.8 billion rubles. Additionally, the group’s assets grew by 25.2%, totaling 5.724 trillion rubles.
Moreover, the growth of the Russian economy has been stimulated by the active use of state contracts as an investment anchor, particularly in sectors such as machine engineering, construction, and defense.
During this time, new production chains were established, creating opportunities for domestic tech companies. 
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